Determinants of Private Consumption Expenditure in Egypt: ARDL Study

This paper studies the relationship between private consumption expenditure and independent variables that include GDP, population number, interest rate, inflation rate in Egypt during period from 1955 to 2022 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The research also aims study effect of displacement spending government a model found there is positive significant both output long run. In run, 1% increase GDP associated with 0.8% spending, 0.3% spending. However, an inverse consumer rates 0.2% decrease 0.1% short term, population. 0.6% Private short-term rate. findings this suggest central bank can use monetary policy tools order influence intermediate objective aggregate demand. Taxes be used as one fiscal disposable income change